Copyright 2003 Haaretz
September 23
HEADLINE: Analysis / Not so fast in tortuous talks
BYLINE: Ze'ev Schiff
Hezbollah and Palestinian sources are saying the
expected prisoner exchange between Israel and the
Lebanese organization will include Palestinians,
including Tanzim leader Marwan Barghouti, who is
on trial in Israel, but officials here are saying
no decisions in principle have been made yet.
The negotiations with Hezbollah
are still underway and various
proposals have come up, but
Israel is still sticking to its
refusal to include
Palestinians, and certainly not
senior officials like
Barghouti, perceived as having
"blood on their hands."
In addition to the difficult
negotiations, Hezbollah is conducting an
unusual psychological campaign, with the
personal involvement of Hassan Nasrallah. The
organization's leader responds quickly to the
mood in Israel and often sends soothing
messages to the Israeli public, like his
indirect announcement Hezbollah would do all it
can to find information about missing navigator
Ron Arad.
Israel is meanwhile maintaining near absolute
silence, except for a few details reported
about the meeting between Prime Minister Ariel
Sharon and the Arad family.
Both sides are interested in a successful
conclusion to the negotiations, each for their
own reasons. Nasrallah is also under pressure
from families that lost a son or a disappeared
person. He has an interest in proving that in
addition to the Lebanese prisoners he is
concerned about others, particularly
Palestinians, and to demonstrate he is an
pan-Arab leader who can find solutions other
leaders can't.
His propaganda campaign has managed to grow
rumors spread by Hamas and others about
prisoner releases, and the Hezbollah and
Palestinians hurried to put the cart before the
horse, on the assumption that they could force
a change in Israel's positions. Jerusalem might
be interested in a deal with Hezbollah, and
regards the successful conclusion of the
negotiations as a positive step politically,
but it faces a number of problems, legal and
moral.
In recent days there have been reports, mostly
from Palestinian sources, that Marwan Barghouti
might be included in the deal. There have been
no comments from the Israeli side. Nor has
there been any high-level discussion of the
matter, and none of the relevant agencies have
been asked to present their view. One argument
being heard is that Barghouti is a leader with
whom it is possible to cut a deal and reach an
end to Tanzim violence, so it would be worth
releasing him.
On the other hand, he is still on trial and the
Shin Bet regards him as someone with blood on
his hands. A ministerial committee on freeing
Palestinian prisoners has already decided that
such people will not be released from Israeli
jails as a goodwill gesture.
The early instructions were for negotiations
with Hezbollah to focus on Lebanese and do
everything possible to prevent the talks
leading to the difficult Palestinian issue. It
is preferable to free Palestinians in a direct
and large deal with the Palestinians rather
than granting the Hezbollah a "card" that will
only strengthen them in Palestinian eyes, and
in particular in the eyes of the Hamas and
Tanzim.
Hezbollah wants to penetrate the ranks of both
those organizations to encourage them to step
up terror activity against Israel, inside the
country. The proposal to include Palestinian
prisoners was raised by the German mediator at
the last meeting. It was brought to Israel and
presented to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon but so
far no discussion has been held in the security
cabinet on the issue. If Israel agreed, it
would be a great change in policy, even without
the question of how many Palestinians would be
released, let alone why they were put in jail
in the first place.
The issue of Ron Arad is also problematic. His
family was told that the prisoner exchange
should take place even though no new
information has been provided regarding Arad's
fate. The relatives, who found support from
Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, say that if
Israel releases Mustafa Dirani, who once held
Arad and then "sold" him to the Iranians,
Israel will have essentially given up Arad. And
that would be a blow to the moral underpinnings
of IDF policy on freeing its PoWs wherever they
are.